Investment Strategy
Published February 2023 The U.S. Federal Reserve is now operating at a financial loss, and is months away from having negative tangible equity for the first time in modern history. This article explores how we got here and to what extent any of this matters for savers and investors. Commercial Bank Assets and Liabilities A commercial bank … [Read more...]
Published December 2022 In the wake of the FTX/Alameda collapse, which came after prior collapses of Luna, Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows Capital, many crypto industry analysts have pointed towards DeFi ("Decentralized Finance") as a potential solution. This article dissects some of the nuances of that view, grants that certain … [Read more...]
Published October 2022 Back in June 2021, I wrote a longform piece on the energy sector called, "The Case for a Longer-term Oil and Gas Bull Market". I followed this up with a shorter piece in July 2022 called "Energy: The Area Under the Curve", which emphasized that it was the integral of energy prices (i.e. the time spent elevated) that is … [Read more...]
Published: August 2022 This article examines the relationship between a monetary asset being a store of value vs being a medium of exchange. Specifically, it focuses on the scaling method of the Bitcoin network as its main example, but also takes a broad look at the history of trade-offs in the cryptocurrency space as well to see why a … [Read more...]
Published: July 2022 There's a ton of focus in financial media about how high energy prices will go, or how low they will fall. However, I think a lesser-understood aspect of this current energy and inflation problem relates to time. It's not just the high price of energy that matters; it's also the time that it remains at high prices that … [Read more...]