Investment Strategy
When it comes to determining a fair value for equities, interest rates are an important variable to consider. As rates rise or fall, they affect the appropriate valuations for different stocks in different ways. This article provides a brief overview of how that works. The Equity Risk Premium Equities are not priced in a vacuum; they are … [Read more...]
The anonymous founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, solved the hard problems associated with digital scarcity with a white paper in 2008, and launched Bitcoin in 2009. After that invention, numerous other projects came in its wake. There are now over 8,000 separate digital assets that CoinMarketCap recognizes. Of these, Ethereum is the second … [Read more...]
Published December 2, 2020 Since autumn of 2019, I've been bearish on the dollar, meaning I have a longish-term outlook towards a weaker dollar. This view began forming when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in summer 2019, and then the view solidified with a catalyst after an overnight repo rate spike in September 2019 forced the Fed to … [Read more...]
Published: November 11, 2020 I initially covered Bitcoin in an article in autumn 2017, and was neutral-to-mildly-bearish for the intermediate term, and took no position. The technology was well-conceived, but I had concerns about euphoric sentiment and market dilution. I neither claimed that it had to go lower, nor viewed it bullishly, and … [Read more...]
Lately, it has become fashionable to debate what is, or is not, "money-printing" by central banks. This debate is natural, due to the extreme policy nature of 2020, with massive fiscal expenditures, huge increases in central bank balance sheets, and changes in central bank inflation targets. It's important to know what is inflationary, and what … [Read more...]