Investment Strategy
There has been a lot of discussion lately about how effective monetary policy can be. In my view, the big debate between fiscal policy and monetary policy, or inflation vs deflation, mostly comes down to looking at a long enough historical timeline to see the full context. The effectiveness of monetary policy, including interest rate … [Read more...]
For several decades, there has been a gradual but significant shift in U.S. tax policy that favored strong stock performance on one hand, and the offshoring of many U.S. jobs on the other. Here is a chart that captures it well: Data Sources: U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis, U.S. Treasury, Tax Policy Center This article examines that … [Read more...]
Published: July 16, 2020 Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies have been around for over a decade, since the release of Bitcoin in early 2009. While the asset class has grown considerably, it remains relatively small and highly volatile, so deciding whether to insert a small bit of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrency exposure into a portfolio … [Read more...]
Published: July 2020 In my view, there's still a good case for including gold and gold stocks in a portfolio, despite their recent period of outperformance. In other words, I still think we're in the first half of this gold bull move from 2015/2016 lows, rather than the tail end. Chart Source: St. Louis Fed I added gold and gold … [Read more...]
The world has a debt problem. Specifically, debt as a percentage of GDP has climbed to very high levels throughout the world. Developed markets on average have much higher debt than emerging markets, but emerging markets often owe debt in currencies they don't control (like dollars), so it's a very large problem all around the globe, albeit with … [Read more...]