Investment Strategy
Quantitative easing (QE) occurs when central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, create new money to buy government bonds or other securities. Some people fear that it will cause high inflation or even hyper-inflation and that it is essentially money-printing, while others suggest that it has no impact on inflation because the money that is … [Read more...]
Many comparisons are being made between the current predicament that the United States and the rest of the world finds itself in, and the Great Depression of the 1930’s. This current time will certainly be a period that historians in the future will have a lot to write about, culturally, geopolitically, and economically. The fastest fall from … [Read more...]
There is currently a short squeeze affecting most of the global economy, slowing its growth. This has been the case well before the impacts from the trade war and the coronavirus. A short squeeze occurs when something that is heavily shorted goes on to rise sharply in price for one reason or another. That rise in price forces many short-sellers … [Read more...]
U.S. Treasury bonds (and bills and notes) are often thought of as risk-free investments. This is true in a sense; the U.S. Treasury has always fully paid back its debts in dollar-denominated nominal terms. However, what many investors miss is the fact that the purchasing power of those bonds is not guaranteed. They can lose real purchasing power … [Read more...]
In early October, I published my analysis on why the U.S. dollar is likely in a topping process and that my base case was that it would be weaker in 2020 and beyond. You can read that analysis here. The summary is that the dollar has been strong for the past five years, despite its fundamental problems, due to a global dollar liquidity shortage … [Read more...]