Investment Strategy
Published December 2, 2020 Since autumn of 2019, I've been bearish on the dollar, meaning I have a longish-term outlook towards a weaker dollar. This view began forming when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in summer 2019, and then the view solidified with a catalyst after an overnight repo rate spike in September 2019 forced the Fed to … [Read more...]
Published: November 11, 2020 I initially covered Bitcoin in an article in autumn 2017, and was neutral-to-mildly-bearish for the intermediate term, and took no position. The technology was well-conceived, but I had concerns about euphoric sentiment and market dilution. I neither claimed that it had to go lower, nor viewed it bullishly, and … [Read more...]
Lately, it has become fashionable to debate what is, or is not, "money-printing" by central banks. This debate is natural, due to the extreme policy nature of 2020, with massive fiscal expenditures, huge increases in central bank balance sheets, and changes in central bank inflation targets. It's important to know what is inflationary, and what … [Read more...]
During election season, a big portion of financial media news coverage shifts to presidential election outcomes. These election seasons tend to be good for media ratings and clicks, but to what extent do they matter for investors? Does accurately predicting the result of a presidential election generate outperformance? Can we say a lot about the … [Read more...]
Published: September 2020 There has been a lot of discussion lately about how effective monetary policy can be. In my view, the big debate between fiscal policy and monetary policy, or inflation vs deflation, mostly comes down to looking at a long enough historical timeline to see the full context. The effectiveness of monetary policy, … [Read more...]