Investment Strategy
Published December 2022 In the wake of the FTX/Alameda collapse, which came after prior collapses of Luna, Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows Capital, many crypto industry analysts have pointed towards DeFi ("Decentralized Finance") as a potential solution. This article dissects some of the nuances of that view, grants that certain … [Read more...]
Published October 2022 Back in June 2021, I wrote a longform piece on the energy sector called, "The Case for a Longer-term Oil and Gas Bull Market". I followed this up with a shorter piece in July 2022 called "Energy: The Area Under the Curve", which emphasized that it was the integral of energy prices (i.e. the time spent elevated) that is … [Read more...]
Published: August 2022 This article examines the relationship between a monetary asset being a store of value vs being a medium of exchange. Specifically, it focuses on the scaling method of the Bitcoin network as its main example, but also takes a broad look at the history of trade-offs in the cryptocurrency space as well to see why a … [Read more...]
Published: July 2022 There's a ton of focus in financial media about how high energy prices will go, or how low they will fall. However, I think a lesser-understood aspect of this current energy and inflation problem relates to time. It's not just the high price of energy that matters; it's also the time that it remains at high prices that … [Read more...]
June 12, 2022 Several of the major central banks are stuck in a trap of their own making. This includes the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and others. The credit-based global financial system we have constructed and participated in over the past century has to continually grow or die. It's like a game of … [Read more...]